3 Shades of Blue in general (and myself in particular) have always been fans of the work of David Berri, one of the co-authors of the book Wages of Wins . I recently had the opportunity to ask David some questions via email about the Grizzlies and the Pau Gasol trade in particular. Here are the results of that conversation. 3SoB: David First let me say how much I appreciate you taking the time to do this. I suppose given your Bakersfield residence you felt obligated the fill in the blanks left from the Pau Gasol trade. After all if Memphis can give the Lakers a championship you can at least give a bit of your time to the Grizzlies blog writers! David: Glad to talk to you and your audience (which I gather is growing very rapidly). 3SoB: You wrote a book called the Wages of Wins a few years back in which you attempt to use statistics to determine a players value and how many wins he actually produces for his team. Would you give us a Cliff Notes version of how this works? David: Here is the overview of the Wins Produced model: The model starts with the basic idea that wins in the NBA are determined by offensive and defensive efficiency (points divided by possessions). From this relationship, one can estimate the value of points, rebounds, steals, turnovers, personal fouls, field goal attempts, and free throw attempts. Additional statistical work gives us the value of a blocked shot and an assist. Additional notes 1. The value of each statistic is derived from an econometric (or statistical) model. And the values are an estimate of the impact the statistic has on the outcomes we observe for the team. 2. The analysis indicates that points, rebounds, steals, turnovers, and field goal attempts have virtually the same impact (in absolute terms) on wins. Personal fouls, free throw attempts, blocked shots, and assists are worth somewhat less than the other factors. 3. When we look at the impact of these statistics we learn two lessons: a. In terms of scoring efficiency matters. If you score points inefficiently you do not actually help your team win. b. Possession variables rebounds, turnovers, steals impact outcomes. Players that dont score, but get you rebounds and steals (and/or avoid turnovers), can have a significant impact on wins. 4. One last point it is assumed that a player statistics are his statistics. In other words, if you score 10 points (or get 10 rebounds), you get credit for these points (or rebounds). If you take 5 shots, you are charged the cost of these shots. Its important to note that there is some interaction between the player statistics, but I have found this effect to be rather small. For the most part, what you see in the NBA is what you get. So it makes sense to credit a player for his statistics (by the way, I would not make the same argument for NFL players) 3SoB: You wrote on your website that this trade makes the Lakers the favorites to win the West of they can get Bynum back. You went so far as to say that Gasols presence puts the Lakers among the elite in the West even without Bynum. From someone who remembers the Grizzlies 0-12 playoff record with Gasol, is this actually a playoff prediction you are making or just a regular season record assumption?  read more »

One of the most interesting things about the NBA for me is how much of an effect a truly elite player can have on a franchise. The NBA is the only professional league in which almost the entire fortune of a franchise can be driven by one player. My belief in The Superstar Theory was initially established after reading the wonderful article on 82games.com by Dennis Gallagher . A similar three part study was done on NBADraft.net by Robert W. McChesney ( Part 1 , Part 2 , Part 3 ). Both authors come to similar conclusions.  read more »

Tonight's matchup is huge, as we take on the Lakers, owner of the best record in the Western Conference.   In honor of the matchup, I bring to you a question exchange with one of the most thoughtful and enjoyable bloggers out there, even if he does write about the Lakers: Kurt of Forum Blue and Gold.

As usual, sometime today he will post my answers to his questions, addressing our defense, the Birdman, my expectations for the playoffs - and something I'm particularly happy with - my argument of CP3 for MVP.  Take a look when you get a chance.

Here are my questions and Kurt's answers:  read more »

Records: Lakers 23-11; Bucks 15-20 Offensive ratings: Lakers 112.2 (5th); Bucks 104.6 (20th) Defensive ratings: Lakers 105.1 (7th); Bucks 110.8 (27th) Projected Starting Lineups: Lakers: Derek Fisher, Kobe Bryant, Luke Walton, Lamar Odom, Andrew Bynum Bucks: Mo Williams, Michael Redd, Bobby Simmons, Yi Jianlian, Andrew Bogut Lakers Notes: Can you really get enough Andrew Bynum love?  read more »

Records: Lakers 18-10; Jazz 16-14 Offensive ratings: Lakers 111.3(7th); Jazz 112.0 (5th) Defensive ratings: Lakers 105.9 (11th); Jazz 107.6 (14th) Projected Starting Lineups: Lakers: Derek Fisher, Kobe Bryant, Trevor Ariza, Lamar Odom, Andrew Bynum Jazz: Deron Williams, Ronnie Brewer, AK47, Carlos Boozer, Mehmet Okur Lakers Notes: Quick injury update: No Luke, no Kwame tonight. Inside Hoops has done an interesting Q&A with Andrew Bynum , which gives us some insight in to how he went from gangly 17-year-old to breakout player: InsideHoops.com: How’s it going working with Lakers staff as they try to teach you new skills and help your development?  read more »

Team Name: Los Angeles Lakers Last Years Record: 57-25 Key Loss: Ronny Turiaf Key Additions: Getting Andrew Bynum and Trevor Ariza healthy, Josh Powell 1. What Significant Moves were made during the off-season?  read more »

Early in the season, about two weeks in, I asked a quick question in a Diary:  Is there a precedent for Chris Kaman?  His resurgence (emergence?) this year seems entirely unlikely and I was trying to think of other NBA players who had followed similar career trajectories.

I felt like it would be jumping the gun to write a lengthy post on the subject after 7 or so games.  I mean, plenty of players go on hot streaks for a week or even a month, so the Kaman situation could have been a fluke.  But 34 games into the season, I think we can safely say that new Kaman is not a fluke.  read more »

With our guys coming off a flawless three game road trip and playing their first home game of 2008, the Arena was hyped for the Hornets to take on Coby Karl Kobe Bryant and the Los Angeles Lakers tonight.Unfortunately, the game sucked. It sucked a lot. Here's how... Pregame Melvin Ely is out for warm-ups and expected to make his return tonight. He's wearing a face mask thingy, which apparently the chicks really dig these days. Not to be outdone, Marcus Vinicius got his hair chopped. He is married though, so I'm guessing the new 'do is mostly for aerodynamic purposes.Kermit Ruffins does the anthem thing real good and we're about ready to tip.First QuarterWe've got our usual five.  read more »

Records: Lakers 21-11; Grizzlies 10-23 Offensive ratings: Lakers 111.8 (6th); Grizzlies 107.2 (15th) Defensive ratings: Lakers 106.0 (8th); Grizzlies 111.6 (27th) Projected Starting Lineups: Lakers: Derek Fisher, Kobe Bryant, Luke Walton, Lamar Odom, Andrew Bynum Grizzlies: Mike Conley, Mike Miller, Rudy Gay, Pau Gasol, Darko Milicic The Grizzlies Coming In: I look at a Memphis roster with Pau Gasol, Rudy Gay, future Olympian Mike Miller and the emerging Mike Conley and think, How can they be this bad? This is not a roster that would contend, but one of the worst records in the NBA?  read more »